Kaya 0–1 BG Pathum United: Result & Stats

Kaya

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BG Pathum United

S. Yooyen 83'

7/8/2021

AFC Champions League · Group F - 5LEO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kaya21%

×Draw21%

BG Pathum United58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayaExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.14

Kaya

1.21

BG Pathum United

2.14

BG Pathum United creates 77% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

0.50

creates per match

1.45

2.83

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Kaya

0.50

BG Pathum United

1.45

allows per match

Kaya

2.83

BG Pathum United

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kaya or draw

42%

Kaya or BG Pathum United

79%

Draw or BG Pathum United

79%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+

8%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals

70%

Kaya 2+ goals

34%

Kaya 3+ goals

12%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

88%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

63%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)

26%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 0.50 + BG Pathum United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

BG Pathum United attack 1.45 + Kaya defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kaya scores more

21%

level

21%

BG Pathum United scores more

58%

BG Pathum United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Yooyen

BG Pathum United · M

8.5

Match Events

45'

Jovin Bedic

46'

J. Gayoso← J. Bedic

59'

S. Chatthong← T. Dangda

59'

S. Purisai← C. Veerachart

71'

A. Amita← M. Angeles

71'

E. Giganto← K. Daniels

71'

A. Sorada← Y. Namuangrak

71'

K. Ingreso← T. Puangjan

77'

M. Omura← C. Mitchell

80'

C. Samphaodi← Diogo

83'

S. Yooyen↳ K. Ingreso

86'

J. Melliza← Fujii Ryo

88'

Andres Tunez

90'

Masanari Omura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KayaBG

Overview

27%Possession73%

5Total Shots30

2Corners12

12Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots30

3On Target4

1Off Target20

1Blocked6

3Inside Box19

2Outside Box11

Passing

27%Possession73%

213Total Passes548

122Accurate Passes469

57%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1