Kawkab Marrakech 1–2 CR Khemis Zemamra

Kawkab Marrakech

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

CR Khemis Zemamra

Y. Raiani 29'

M. Moutaouali 85'

Z. Fatihi 76'

5/8/2026

Botola Pro · Round 19Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech44%

×Draw28%

CR Khemis Zemamra28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawkab MarrakechExpected goals in this matchCR Khemis Zemamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Kawkab Marrakech

1.31

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.00

Kawkab Marrakech creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 73 away

1.25

creates per match

0.97

1.03

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.25

CR Khemis Zemamra

0.97

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.03

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw

72%

Kawkab Marrakech or CR Khemis Zemamra

72%

Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra

56%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

20%

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

73%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

38%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

14%

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals

63%

CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals

26%

CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

61%

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.25 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 0.97 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

44%

level

28%

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more

28%

Kawkab Marrakech at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

R. Mennioui

29'

Y. Raiani↳ Y. El Bahraoui

33'

A. El Hamzaoui← M. Lahtimi

39'

H. Smaali

41'

N. Lougmani

46'

I. El Alami← R. Mennioui

46'

M. Moutaouali← A. Farah

46'

M. Oujeddou← I. Zidani

52'

A. El Bajjani

63'

H. Rafa← O. Mahrous

63'

S. Essallami← Y. El Bahraoui

71'

Z. Fatihi← Y. Faffa

76'

Z. Fatihi↳ M. Moutaouali

81'

H. El Janati← Y. Raiani

81'

K. Tamrani← I. Mihrab

85'

M. Moutaouali↳ M. Oujeddou

86'

A. El Ghanouj← A. El Bajjani

Kawkab

CR

1

99

15

66

31

14

▼

Farah

36

Tahiri

6

▼

Bajjani

11

▼

Faffa

4

▼

Zidani

21

▼

Lahtimi

22

Jemjami

5

▼

Mahrous

35

Gnolou

13

▼

Mennioui

27

Battah

24

⚽

▼

Raiani

14

Smaali

19

▼

Mihrab

77

Lougmani

18

Cisse

47

A

▼

Bahraoui

Manager: Hicham Dmiai

46'▲I. El Alami←▼R. Mennioui

63'▲H. Rafa←▼O. Mahrous

63'▲S. Essallami←▼Y. El Bahraoui

81'▲H. El Janati←▼Y. Raiani

81'▲K. Tamrani←▼I. Mihrab

Kawkab Marrakech substitutes

37Oubna26Fassoukh44Alami23Hafidi21Rafa6Janati8Tamrani7Founti11Essallami

Manager: Mehdi Alauoi

33'▲A. El Hamzaoui←▼M. Lahtimi

46'▲M. Moutaouali←▼A. Farah

46'▲M. Oujeddou←▼I. Zidani

71'▲Z. Fatihi←▼Y. Faffa

86'▲A. El Ghanouj←▼A. El Bajjani

CR Khemis Zemamra substitutes

95Jourbaoui8Radouani10Moutaouali13Fatihi16Oujeddou17Hamzaoui19Ghailan27Tine51Ghanouj