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Kawkab Marrakech vs CR Khemis Zemamra — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
Unknown 16'
A. Al Hamzawy 90+1'
A. Abdelkhaleq 23'
M. Iajour 12'
1/23/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 16Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech38%
×Draw30%
CR Khemis Zemamra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.10
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.97

Kawkab Marrakech creates 13% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
CR Khemis Zemamra
1.00

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.80

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
68%
Kawkab Marrakech or CR Khemis Zemamra
70%
Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra
62%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
16%
CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
67%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
30%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
10%
CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
62%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
25%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
55%
CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.00 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
38%
level
30%
CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
32%

Kawkab Marrakech at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
M. Iajour
16'
23'
A. Abdelkhaleq
90+1'
A. Al Hamzawy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kawkab Marrakech 1 – 3 CR Khemis Zemamra

CR Khemis Zemamra beat Kawkab Marrakech 3-1 in Botola 2 on January 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Iajour (12'), ? (16'), A. Abdelkhaleq (23'), A. Al Hamzawy (90+1').

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.