Kawkab Marrakech 1–2 Chabab Mohammédia

Kawkab Marrakech

FT

1 – 2

Chabab Mohammédia

1/26/2020

Botola 2 · Round 16Stade Al Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech43%

×Draw31%

Chabab Mohammédia27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawkab MarrakechExpected goals in this matchChabab Mohammédia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.83

Kawkab Marrakech

1.14

Chabab Mohammédia

0.83

Kawkab Marrakech creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 29 away

1.41

creates per match

0.72

0.95

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.41

Chabab Mohammédia

0.72

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech

0.95

Chabab Mohammédia

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw

73%

Kawkab Marrakech or Chabab Mohammédia

69%

Draw or Chabab Mohammédia

57%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

18%

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

68%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

32%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

11%

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

56%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

20%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

62%

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.14

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.72 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

43%

level

31%

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

27%

Kawkab Marrakech at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff