Chabab Mohammédia 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Chabab Mohammédia

FT

1 – 1

Kawkab Marrakech

9/15/2019

Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Al Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia39%

×Draw29%

Kawkab Marrakech32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab MohammédiaExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.02

Chabab Mohammédia

1.15

Kawkab Marrakech

1.02

Chabab Mohammédia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 74 away

1.34

creates per match

0.77

1.28

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.34

Kawkab Marrakech

0.77

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.28

Kawkab Marrakech

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw

68%

Chabab Mohammédia or Kawkab Marrakech

71%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

61%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

16%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

68%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

32%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

11%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

64%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

27%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

55%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.95 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.34 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.77 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

39%

level

29%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

32%

Chabab Mohammédia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chabab Mohammédia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff