Kawasaki Frontale 2–0 Jubilo Iwata: Result & Stats

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jubilo Iwata

9/14/2019

J1 League · Round 26Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale57%

×Draw23%

Jubilo Iwata20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchJubilo Iwata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.98

Kawasaki Frontale

1.80

Jubilo Iwata

0.98

Kawasaki Frontale creates 84% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 70 away

2.01

creates per match

0.83

1.13

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

2.01

Jubilo Iwata

0.83

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.13

Jubilo Iwata

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Jubilo Iwata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

80%

Kawasaki Frontale or Jubilo Iwata

77%

Draw or Jubilo Iwata

43%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

32%

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

83%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

54%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

27%

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

62%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

26%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

74%

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.13 · 151 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.01 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jubilo Iwata attack 0.83 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

57%

level

23%

Jubilo Iwata scores more

20%

Kawasaki Frontale at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff