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Jubilo Iwata vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
4/6/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 7Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Jubilo Iwata28%
×Draw24%
Kawasaki Frontale48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.19
Kawasaki Frontale
1.65

Kawasaki Frontale creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 151 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.21
Kawasaki Frontale
1.70

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.60
Kawasaki Frontale
1.17

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
52%
Jubilo Iwata or Kawasaki Frontale
76%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
72%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
11%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
70%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
33%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
12%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
81%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
49%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
36%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.17 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.21 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.70 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
28%
level
24%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
48%

Kawasaki Frontale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jubilo Iwata vs Kawasaki Frontale

Jubilo Iwata and Kawasaki Frontale drew 1-1 in J1 League on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.