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Kawasaki Frontale vs Daegu FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
6/26/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group I - 1Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale42%
×Draw22%
Daegu FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
1.81
Daegu FC
1.63

Kawasaki Frontale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
2.43
Daegu FC
2.30

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
0.95
Daegu FC
1.20

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
65%
Kawasaki Frontale or Daegu FC
78%
Draw or Daegu FC
58%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
23%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
84%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
54%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
27%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
80%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
48%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
55%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Daegu FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Daegu FC attack 2.30 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
42%
level
22%
Daegu FC scores more
35%

Kawasaki Frontale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawasaki Frontale vs Daegu FC

Kawasaki Frontale beat Daegu FC 3-2 in AFC Champions League on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.