Daegu FC 1–3 Kawasaki Frontale: Result & Stats

Daegu FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Kawasaki Frontale

7/8/2021

AFC Champions League · Ranking of second-placed teams - 5Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daegu FC44%

×Draw22%

Kawasaki Frontale33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daegu FCExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.62

Daegu FC

1.89

Kawasaki Frontale

1.62

Daegu FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

2.78

creates per match

2.35

0.89

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Daegu FC

2.78

Kawasaki Frontale

2.35

allows per match

Daegu FC

0.89

Kawasaki Frontale

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw

67%

Daegu FC or Kawasaki Frontale

78%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

56%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+

24%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals

85%

Daegu FC 2+ goals

56%

Daegu FC 3+ goals

29%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

80%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

48%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)

57%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 2.78 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + Daegu FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Daegu FC scores more

44%

level

22%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

33%

Daegu FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff