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Kawasaki Frontale vs Beijing Guoan — AFC Champions League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
7/11/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group I - 6Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale65%
×Draw19%
Beijing Guoan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
2.21
Beijing Guoan
0.97

Kawasaki Frontale creates 128% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
2.43
Beijing Guoan
1.00

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
0.95
Beijing Guoan
2.00

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
85%
Kawasaki Frontale or Beijing Guoan
81%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
35%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
42%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
89%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
65%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
38%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
62%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
25%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
81%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
65%
level
19%
Beijing Guoan scores more
15%

Kawasaki Frontale at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawasaki Frontale vs Beijing Guoan

Kawasaki Frontale beat Beijing Guoan 4-0 in AFC Champions League on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.