Beijing Guoan 0–7 Kawasaki Frontale: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Kawasaki Frontale

6/29/2021

AFC Champions League · Group I - 2Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Beijing Guoan20%

×Draw21%

Kawasaki Frontale58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.02

Beijing Guoan

1.10

Kawasaki Frontale

2.02

Kawasaki Frontale creates 84% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

1.20

creates per match

2.35

1.70

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

1.20

Kawasaki Frontale

2.35

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.70

Kawasaki Frontale

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

42%

Beijing Guoan or Kawasaki Frontale

79%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

80%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

7%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

67%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

30%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

10%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

87%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

60%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

26%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

20%

level

21%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

58%

Kawasaki Frontale at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff