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Kaw Valley vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
FT
3 – 1
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
6/25/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 35Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kaw Valley48%
×Draw21%
Green Bay Voyageurs31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
2.09
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.66

Kaw Valley creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
69%
Kaw Valley or Green Bay Voyageurs
79%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
52%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
28%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
88%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
62%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
34%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
81%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
49%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
61%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.09

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
48%
level
21%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
31%

Kaw Valley at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kaw Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaw Valley vs Green Bay Voyageurs

Kaw Valley beat Green Bay Voyageurs 3-1 in USL League Two on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Rock Chalk Park in Lawrence, Kansas.