Green Bay Voyageurs 0–0 Kaw Valley: Result & Stats

Green Bay Voyageurs

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kaw Valley

6/23/2019

USL League Two · Round 1Capital Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Green Bay Voyageurs39%

×Draw28%

Kaw Valley33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green Bay VoyageursExpected goals in this matchKaw Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.14

Green Bay Voyageurs

1.25

Kaw Valley

1.14

Green Bay Voyageurs creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.28

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Green Bay Voyageurs

1.00

Kaw Valley

1.28

allows per match

Green Bay Voyageurs

1.00

Kaw Valley

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Bay Voyageurs ↓

Kaw Valley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Green Bay Voyageurs or draw

67%

Green Bay Voyageurs or Kaw Valley

72%

Draw or Kaw Valley

61%

Winning margin

Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+

17%

Kaw Valley wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals

71%

Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals

36%

Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals

13%

Kaw Valley 1+ goals

68%

Kaw Valley 2+ goals

32%

Kaw Valley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)

54%

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Bay Voyageurs at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Green Bay Voyageurs scores more

39%

level

28%

Kaw Valley scores more

33%

Green Bay Voyageurs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Green Bay Voyageurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff