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Kaw Valley vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
FT
0 – 1
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
6/6/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 19Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaw Valley25%
×Draw20%
Des Moines Menace55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
1.51
Des Moines Menace
2.29

Des Moines Menace creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
45%
Kaw Valley or Des Moines Menace
80%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
75%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
11%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
78%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
44%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
19%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
90%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
66%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
31%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.51

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
25%
level
20%
Des Moines Menace scores more
55%

Des Moines Menace at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaw Valley 0 – 1 Des Moines Menace

Des Moines Menace beat Kaw Valley 1-0 in USL League Two on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Rock Chalk Park in Lawrence, Kansas.