Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Des Moines Menace vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menaceadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
7/23/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsValley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Des Moines Menace65%
×Draw19%
Kaw Valley17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
2.36
Kaw Valley
1.11

Des Moines Menace creates 113% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 18 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
3.22
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
0.94
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
83%
Des Moines Menace or Kaw Valley
81%
Draw or Kaw Valley
35%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
42%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
90%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
68%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
41%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
67%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
30%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
80%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.36

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
65%
level
19%
Kaw Valley scores more
17%

Des Moines Menace at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Des Moines Menace vs Kaw Valley

Des Moines Menace beat Kaw Valley 4-0 in USL League Two on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Valley Stadium in West Des Moines, Iowa.