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Kaw Valley vs Chicago City — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chicago City
Chicago City
6/26/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 50Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaw Valley36%
×Draw20%
Chicago City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
2.02
Chicago City
2.26

Chicago City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Chicago City
2.21

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Chicago City
1.95

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Chicago City+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Chicago City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
56%
Kaw Valley or Chicago City
80%
Draw or Chicago City
64%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
19%
Chicago City wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
87%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
60%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
33%
Chicago City 1+ goals
89%
Chicago City 2+ goals
66%
Chicago City 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
45%
Chicago City (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Chicago City away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Chicago City defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

Chicago City attack 2.21 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
36%
level
20%
Chicago City scores more
44%

Chicago City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaw Valley 2 – 0 Chicago City

Kaw Valley beat Chicago City 2-0 in USL League Two on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Mercy Victory Field in Kansas City, Missouri.