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Chicago City vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago City
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
6/19/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 41Lions for Hope Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chicago City46%
×Draw22%
Kaw Valley32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
1.87
Kaw Valley
1.52

Chicago City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
68%
Chicago City or Kaw Valley
78%
Draw or Kaw Valley
54%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
25%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
85%
Chicago City 2+ goals
56%
Chicago City 3+ goals
29%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
78%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
45%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
59%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.87

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chicago City scores more
46%
level
22%
Kaw Valley scores more
32%

Chicago City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago City 5–3 Kaw Valley

Chicago City beat Kaw Valley 5-3 in USL League Two on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Lions for Hope Sports Complex in Chicago, Illinois.