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Kauno Žalgiris vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Banga
Banga
2/28/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris51%
×Draw26%
Banga23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris
1.52
Banga
0.93

Kauno Žalgiris creates 63% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 111 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.73
Banga
0.87

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris
0.98
Banga
1.30

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw
77%
Kauno Žalgiris or Banga
74%
Draw or Banga
49%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
26%
Banga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
78%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
45%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
20%
Banga 1+ goals
61%
Banga 2+ goals
24%
Banga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
69%
Banga (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.98 · 127 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.30 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.73 + Banga defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Banga attack 0.87 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more
51%
level
26%
Banga scores more
23%

Kauno Žalgiris at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris 1–0 Banga

Kauno Žalgiris beat Banga 1-0 in A Lyga on February 28, 2026.