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Banga vs Kauno Žalgiris — A Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
8/30/2025A LygaA Lyga · Round 27Gargzdai stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Banga28%
×Draw26%
Kauno Žalgiris45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.09
Kauno Žalgiris
1.45

Kauno Žalgiris creates 33% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 127 away

creates per match

Banga
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris
1.46

allows per match

Banga
1.44
Kauno Žalgiris
1.08

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Banga or draw
55%
Banga or Kauno Žalgiris
74%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
72%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
11%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
66%
Banga 2+ goals
30%
Banga 3+ goals
10%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
77%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
42%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
39%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.10 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.46 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Banga scores more
28%
level
26%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
45%

Kauno Žalgiris at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banga vs Kauno Žalgiris

Banga and Kauno Žalgiris drew 0-0 in A Lyga on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Gargzdai stadium in Gargzdai.