Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Banga: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Kauno Žalgiris

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

I. Venckus 63'

4/27/2025

A Lyga · Round 9S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris52%

×Draw26%

Banga23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kauno ŽalgirisExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.92

Kauno Žalgiris

1.54

Banga

0.92

Kauno Žalgiris creates 67% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 110 away

1.75

creates per match

0.87

0.96

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris

1.75

Banga

0.87

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris

0.96

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw

77%

Kauno Žalgiris or Banga

74%

Draw or Banga

48%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

27%

Banga wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

79%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

45%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

20%

Banga 1+ goals

60%

Banga 2+ goals

23%

Banga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

70%

Banga (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.96 · 126 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.75 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Banga attack 0.87 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

52%

level

26%

Banga scores more

23%

Kauno Žalgiris at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

H. Bah-Traore

61'

D. Georgijevic← V. Armanavicius

61'

V. Paulauskas← R. Jansonas

63'

I. Venckus↳ M. Ramanauskas

69'

N. Zebrauskas← V. Magdusauskas

69'

P. Srebalius← D. Norvilas

72'

J. Simao

75'

E. Cerniauskas

77'

A. Emsis← I. Venckus

77'

M. Andrejev← R. Filipavicius

86'

Jose Elo← P. Olugbogi

Kauno

Banga

55

8

3

19

4

7

▼

Norvilas

6

A

Ramanausk

11

▼

Filipavic

10

▼

Magdusaus

99

▼

Olugbogi

77

⚽

▼

22

23

21

3

70

37

10

8

▼

Armanavic

7

Benchaib

6

Pavlovic

19

▼

Jansonas

61'▲D. Georgijevic←▼V. Armanavicius

61'▲V. Paulauskas←▼R. Jansonas

Kauno Žalgiris substitutes

35Miksiunas55Svedkauskas2Burdzilauskas5Kerkez11Cernych14Naah28Burdzilauskas30Vosylius66Jurjonas77Georgijevic79Paulauskas

69'▲N. Zebrauskas←▼V. Magdusauskas

69'▲P. Srebalius←▼D. Norvilas

77'▲A. Emsis←▼I. Venckus

77'▲M. Andrejev←▼R. Filipavicius

86'▲Jose Elo←▼P. Olugbogi

Banga substitutes

1Vitkauskas12Grinkevicius5Victory9Emsis13Zebrauskas14Harmazi15Elo17Andrejev18Srebalius20Toleikis57Ambrazaitis

A Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Banga

Banga beat Kauno Žalgiris 1-0 in A Lyga on April 27, 2025.

Goals: I. Venckus (63').

The match was played at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas in Kaunas.

Kauno Žalgiris vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Banga