Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Banga: Result & Stats | Cup

Kauno Žalgiris

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

V. Paulauskas 65'

9/18/2024

Cup · Semi-finalsS. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris30%

×Draw24%

Banga46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kauno ŽalgirisExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.64

Kauno Žalgiris

1.29

Banga

1.64

Banga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

2.27

1.00

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris

1.50

Banga

2.27

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris

1.00

Banga

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw

54%

Kauno Žalgiris or Banga

76%

Draw or Banga

70%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

13%

Banga wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

72%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

37%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

14%

Banga 1+ goals

81%

Banga 2+ goals

49%

Banga 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

40%

Banga (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Banga away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.50 + Banga defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Banga attack 2.27 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

30%

level

24%

Banga scores more

46%

Banga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

F. Cernych

62'

V. Armanavičius← O. Kayode

63'

V. Piliukaitis← V. Magdušauskas

65'

V. Paulauskas

68'

D. Norvilas

71'

A. Dolznikov

75'

Ž. Benedičič← G. Sirgedas

76'

K. Shults← V. Paulauskas

76'

R. Vėževičius← P. Srebalius

81'

85'

85'

90'

Kauno

Banga

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Širmelis

62'▲V. Armanavičius←▼O. Kayode

75'▲Ž. Benedičič←▼G. Sirgedas

85'▲D. Martin←▼M. Rale

85'▲Q. Bena←▼F. Černych

Kauno Žalgiris substitutes

ArmanavičiusBenedičičMartinBenaFaseMikšiūnasSpanoVosyliusNainysSincere

Manager: David Afonso

63'▲V. Piliukaitis←▼V. Magdušauskas

76'▲K. Shults←▼V. Paulauskas

76'▲R. Vėževičius←▼P. Srebalius

90'▲B. Šatkus←▼Cesinha

Banga substitutes

PiliukaitisShultsVėževičiusŠatkusSousaKirjanovVenckusSmilingisGrinkevičiusAndrejevSmulkysPliuškys

Cup: Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Banga

Banga beat Kauno Žalgiris 1-0 in Cup on September 18, 2024.

Goals: V. Paulauskas (65').

The match was played at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas in Kaunas.

Kauno Žalgiris vs Banga — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Banga