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Kauno Žalgiris vs Arda Kardzhali — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
8/7/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundS. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris49%
×Draw28%
Arda Kardzhali23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Arda Kardzhali
0.81

Kauno Žalgiris creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.00
Arda Kardzhali
0.33

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.29
Arda Kardzhali
1.67

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw
77%
Kauno Žalgiris or Arda Kardzhali
72%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
51%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
23%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
74%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
38%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
15%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
56%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
19%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
68%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.00 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.33 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more
49%
level
28%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
23%

Kauno Žalgiris at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris vs Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Kauno Žalgiris 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 7, 2025.

The match was played at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas in Kaunas.