Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arda Kardzhali vs Kauno Žalgiris — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
8/14/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundArena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arda Kardzhali49%
×Draw28%
Kauno Žalgiris23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.38
Kauno Žalgiris
0.85

Arda Kardzhali creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.75
Kauno Žalgiris
0.71

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
77%
Arda Kardzhali or Kauno Žalgiris
72%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
51%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
24%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
75%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
40%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
16%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
57%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
21%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
68%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.75 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kauno Žalgiris attack 0.71 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
49%
level
28%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
23%

Arda Kardzhali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris

Arda Kardzhali beat Kauno Žalgiris 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 14, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.