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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Babrungas — 1 Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Babrungas
Babrungas
3/16/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 2VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II29%
×Draw23%
Babrungas48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Babrungas
1.76

Babrungas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 79 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Babrungas
1.67

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.85
Babrungas
1.34

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Babrungas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw
52%
Kauno Žalgiris II or Babrungas
77%
Draw or Babrungas
71%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
13%
Babrungas wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
74%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
38%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
15%
Babrungas 1+ goals
83%
Babrungas 2+ goals
52%
Babrungas 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
38%
Babrungas (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

Babrungas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.33 + Babrungas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Babrungas attack 1.67 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
29%
level
23%
Babrungas scores more
48%

Babrungas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris II vs Babrungas

Babrungas beat Kauno Žalgiris II 2-1 in 1 Lyga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas in Ringaudai.