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Babrungas vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Babrungas
Babrungas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
8/9/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 18Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Babrungas59%
×Draw21%
Kauno Žalgiris II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
2.13
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.16

Babrungas creates 84% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 77 away

creates per match

Babrungas
2.12
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.05

allows per match

Babrungas
1.26
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.13

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
80%
Babrungas or Kauno Žalgiris II
79%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
41%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
36%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
88%
Babrungas 2+ goals
63%
Babrungas 3+ goals
35%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
69%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
32%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
75%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Babrungas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Babrungas scores more
59%
level
21%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
20%

Babrungas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Babrungas vs Kauno Žalgiris II

Babrungas beat Kauno Žalgiris II 3-1 in 1 Lyga on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Plungė.