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Katwijk vs FC Lisse — Tweede Divisie 2019

Katwijk
Katwijk
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Lisse
FC Lisse
8/19/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 1Sportpark de Krom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Katwijk60%
×Draw20%
FC Lisse20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katwijk
2.14
FC Lisse
1.16

Katwijk creates 84% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 35 away

creates per match

Katwijk
2.11
FC Lisse
1.06

allows per match

Katwijk
1.25
FC Lisse
2.17

finishing

Katwijk+0.00on par
FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katwijk ↓

FC Lisse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Katwijk or draw
80%
Katwijk or FC Lisse
80%
Draw or FC Lisse
40%

Winning margin

Katwijk wins by 2+
37%
FC Lisse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Katwijk 1+ goals
88%
Katwijk 2+ goals
63%
Katwijk 3+ goals
36%
FC Lisse 1+ goals
69%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
32%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Katwijk (draw refunded)
75%
FC Lisse (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katwijk at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katwijk attack 2.11 + FC Lisse defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.14

FC Lisse attack 1.06 + Katwijk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Katwijk scores more
60%
level
20%
FC Lisse scores more
20%

Katwijk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Katwijk vs FC Lisse

Katwijk beat FC Lisse 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark de Krom in Katwijk.