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FC Lisse vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Katwijk
Katwijk
5/20/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 33Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse28%
×Draw23%
Katwijk49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.27
Katwijk
1.76

Katwijk creates 39% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 100 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
Katwijk
1.75

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
Katwijk
1.32

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Katwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
51%
FC Lisse or Katwijk
77%
Draw or Katwijk
72%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
12%
Katwijk wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
72%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
36%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
14%
Katwijk 1+ goals
83%
Katwijk 2+ goals
52%
Katwijk 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
36%
Katwijk (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Katwijk attack 1.75 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Lisse scores more
28%
level
23%
Katwijk scores more
49%

Katwijk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lisse vs Katwijk

Katwijk beat FC Lisse 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.