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Katwijk vs AFC Amsterdam — Tweede Divisie 2019

Katwijk
Katwijk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
10/11/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 9Sportpark De Krom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Katwijk44%
×Draw23%
AFC Amsterdam33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katwijk
1.73
AFC Amsterdam
1.46

Katwijk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

creates per match

Katwijk
2.11
AFC Amsterdam
1.68

allows per match

Katwijk
1.25
AFC Amsterdam
1.34

finishing

Katwijk+0.00on par
AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katwijk ↓

AFC Amsterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Katwijk or draw
67%
Katwijk or AFC Amsterdam
77%
Draw or AFC Amsterdam
56%

Winning margin

Katwijk wins by 2+
23%
AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Katwijk 1+ goals
82%
Katwijk 2+ goals
52%
Katwijk 3+ goals
25%
AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
77%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
43%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Katwijk (draw refunded)
57%
AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katwijk at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

AFC Amsterdam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katwijk attack 2.11 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.73

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.68 + Katwijk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Katwijk scores more
44%
level
23%
AFC Amsterdam scores more
33%

Katwijk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Katwijk 0–1 AFC Amsterdam

AFC Amsterdam beat Katwijk 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Krom in Katwijk.