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AFC Amsterdam vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Katwijk
Katwijk
1/18/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 19Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

AFC Amsterdam41%
×Draw24%
Katwijk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Amsterdam
1.65
Katwijk
1.50

AFC Amsterdam creates 10% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.97
Katwijk
1.75

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.26
Katwijk
1.32

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par
Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

Katwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw
65%
AFC Amsterdam or Katwijk
76%
Draw or Katwijk
59%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
21%
Katwijk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
81%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
49%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
23%
Katwijk 1+ goals
78%
Katwijk 2+ goals
44%
Katwijk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
54%
Katwijk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.65

Katwijk attack 1.75 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more
41%
level
24%
Katwijk scores more
35%

AFC Amsterdam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: AFC Amsterdam 1–4 Katwijk

Katwijk beat AFC Amsterdam 4-1 in Tweede Divisie on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Goed Genoeg in Amsterdam.