Katsina United 4–3 Enugu Rangers: Result & Stats

Katsina United

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Enugu Rangers

4/7/2024

NPFL · Round 29Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Katsina United54%

×Draw28%

Enugu Rangers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Katsina UnitedExpected goals in this matchEnugu Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.65

Katsina United

1.35

Enugu Rangers

0.65

Katsina United creates 108% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 130 away

1.57

creates per match

0.71

0.58

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Katsina United

1.57

Enugu Rangers

0.71

allows per match

Katsina United

0.58

Enugu Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Katsina United+0.00on par

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katsina United ↓

Enugu Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Katsina United or draw

82%

Katsina United or Enugu Rangers

72%

Draw or Enugu Rangers

46%

Winning margin

Katsina United wins by 2+

26%

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Katsina United 1+ goals

74%

Katsina United 2+ goals

39%

Katsina United 3+ goals

15%

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

48%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

14%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Katsina United (draw refunded)

75%

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katsina United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.58 · 118 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katsina United attack 1.57 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Katsina United defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Katsina United scores more

54%

level

28%

Enugu Rangers scores more

18%

Katsina United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Katsina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff