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Enugu Rangers vs Katsina United — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Katsina United
Katsina United
10/6/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 7Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Enugu Rangers66%
×Draw24%
Katsina United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.56
Katsina United
0.41

Enugu Rangers creates 280% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 118 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Katsina United
0.29

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Katsina United
1.52

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Katsina United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
91%
Enugu Rangers or Katsina United
76%
Draw or Katsina United
34%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
37%
Katsina United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
79%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
46%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
21%
Katsina United 1+ goals
34%
Katsina United 2+ goals
6%
Katsina United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
88%
Katsina United (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
66%
level
24%
Katsina United scores more
9%

Enugu Rangers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enugu Rangers vs Katsina United

Enugu Rangers beat Katsina United 1-0 in NPFL on October 6, 2025.

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.