Katsina United 2–0 Doma United: Result & Stats

Katsina United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Doma United

6/15/2024

NPFL · Round 37Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Katsina United65%

×Draw24%

Doma United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Katsina UnitedExpected goals in this matchDoma United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.52

Katsina United

1.63

Doma United

0.52

Katsina United creates 213% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 28 away

1.57

creates per match

0.46

0.58

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Katsina United

1.57

Doma United

0.46

allows per match

Katsina United

0.58

Doma United

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Katsina United+0.00on par

Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katsina United ↓

Doma United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Katsina United or draw

89%

Katsina United or Doma United

76%

Draw or Doma United

35%

Winning margin

Katsina United wins by 2+

36%

Doma United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Katsina United 1+ goals

80%

Katsina United 2+ goals

48%

Katsina United 3+ goals

22%

Doma United 1+ goals

41%

Doma United 2+ goals

10%

Doma United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Katsina United (draw refunded)

85%

Doma United (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katsina United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.58 · 118 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katsina United attack 1.57 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

Doma United attack 0.46 + Katsina United defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Katsina United scores more

65%

level

24%

Doma United scores more

11%

Katsina United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Katsina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff