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Doma United vs Katsina United — NPFL 2019

Doma United
Doma United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Katsina United
Katsina United
1/6/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 17Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United60%
×Draw30%
Katsina United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doma United
1.26
Katsina United
0.34

Doma United creates 271% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 118 away

creates per match

Doma United
1.00
Katsina United
0.29

allows per match

Doma United
0.39
Katsina United
1.52

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par
Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Katsina United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–19%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Doma United or draw
90%
Doma United or Katsina United
70%
Draw or Katsina United
40%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+
29%
Katsina United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals
72%
Doma United 2+ goals
36%
Doma United 3+ goals
13%
Katsina United 1+ goals
29%
Katsina United 2+ goals
5%
Katsina United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)
86%
Katsina United (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Doma United scores more
60%
level
30%
Katsina United scores more
10%

Doma United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doma United vs Katsina United

Doma United beat Katsina United 2-0 in NPFL on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.