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Katsina United vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Katsina United
Katsina United
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
3/2/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 16Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Katsina United63%
×Draw25%
Akwa Starlets13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katsina United
1.58
Akwa Starlets
0.55

Katsina United creates 187% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 60 away

creates per match

Katsina United
1.57
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Katsina United
0.58
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Katsina United+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katsina United ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Katsina United or draw
87%
Katsina United or Akwa Starlets
75%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
37%

Winning margin

Katsina United wins by 2+
34%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Katsina United 1+ goals
79%
Katsina United 2+ goals
47%
Katsina United 3+ goals
21%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
42%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
11%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Katsina United (draw refunded)
83%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katsina United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.58 · 118 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katsina United attack 1.57 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Katsina United defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Katsina United scores more
63%
level
25%
Akwa Starlets scores more
13%

Katsina United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Katsina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Katsina United vs Akwa Starlets

Katsina United beat Akwa Starlets 4-1 in NPFL on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina.