Akwa Starlets 1–0 Katsina United: Result & Stats

Akwa Starlets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Katsina United

3/14/2021

NPFL · Round 15Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets59%

×Draw26%

Katsina United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akwa StarletsExpected goals in this matchKatsina United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.60

Akwa Starlets

1.50

Katsina United

0.60

Akwa Starlets creates 150% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 118 away

1.48

creates per match

0.29

0.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Akwa Starlets

1.48

Katsina United

0.29

allows per match

Akwa Starlets

0.92

Katsina United

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Katsina United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw

85%

Akwa Starlets or Katsina United

74%

Draw or Katsina United

41%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+

31%

Katsina United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals

78%

Akwa Starlets 2+ goals

44%

Akwa Starlets 3+ goals

19%

Katsina United 1+ goals

45%

Katsina United 2+ goals

12%

Katsina United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)

80%

Katsina United (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more

59%

level

26%

Katsina United scores more

15%

Akwa Starlets at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff