Busan I Park 1–1 Sangju Sangmu FC: Result & Stats

Busan I Park

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sangju Sangmu FC

6/6/2020

K League 1 · Round 5Busan Gudeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Busan I Park36%

×Draw30%

Sangju Sangmu FC35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Busan I ParkExpected goals in this matchSangju Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.05

Busan I Park

1.07

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 101 away

0.79

creates per match

1.24

0.86

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Busan I Park

0.79

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.24

allows per match

Busan I Park

0.86

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busan I Park+0.00on par

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan I Park ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Busan I Park or draw

65%

Busan I Park or Sangju Sangmu FC

70%

Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC

64%

Winning margin

Busan I Park wins by 2+

14%

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Busan I Park 1+ goals

66%

Busan I Park 2+ goals

29%

Busan I Park 3+ goals

9%

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

65%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

28%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Busan I Park (draw refunded)

51%

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan I Park at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan I Park attack 0.79 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.24 + Busan I Park defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Busan I Park scores more

36%

level

30%

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

35%

Busan I Park at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Busan I Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.