Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–1 Busan I Park: Result & Stats

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Busan I Park

7/10/2023

K League 2 · Round 20Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC47%

×Draw26%

Busan I Park27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimcheon Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchBusan I Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.10

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.53

Busan I Park

1.10

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 137 away

1.94

creates per match

1.43

0.78

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.94

Busan I Park

1.43

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

0.78

Busan I Park

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Busan I Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Busan I Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw

73%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Busan I Park

74%

Draw or Busan I Park

53%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

24%

Busan I Park wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

78%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

45%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

20%

Busan I Park 1+ goals

67%

Busan I Park 2+ goals

30%

Busan I Park 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

63%

Busan I Park (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

Busan I Park away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.94 + Busan I Park defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Busan I Park attack 1.43 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

47%

level

26%

Busan I Park scores more

27%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff