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Busan I Park vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 2 2026

Busan I Park
Busan I Park
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3/19/2023K League 2K League 2 · Round 4Busan Asiad Main Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Busan I Park34%
×Draw25%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busan I Park
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.46

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 36 away

creates per match

Busan I Park
1.42
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.69

allows per match

Busan I Park
1.24
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.19

finishing

Busan I Park+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan I Park ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Busan I Park or draw
59%
Busan I Park or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
75%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
66%

Winning margin

Busan I Park wins by 2+
15%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Busan I Park 1+ goals
73%
Busan I Park 2+ goals
37%
Busan I Park 3+ goals
14%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
77%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
43%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Busan I Park (draw refunded)
45%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan I Park at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan I Park attack 1.42 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.69 + Busan I Park defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Busan I Park scores more
34%
level
25%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
41%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Busan I Park vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Busan I Park beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-1 in K League 2 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Busan Asiad Main Stadium in Busan.