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Kastrioti Krujë vs Kamza — Superliga 2018

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kamza
Kamza
11/11/2018SuperligaSuperliga · Round 13Stadiumi Kastrioti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë56%
×Draw26%
Kamza17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.48
Kamza
0.69

Kastrioti Krujë creates 114% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.03
Kamza
0.22

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.16
Kamza
1.94

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Kamza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Kamza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
83%
Kastrioti Krujë or Kamza
74%
Draw or Kamza
44%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
29%
Kamza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
77%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
43%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
19%
Kamza 1+ goals
50%
Kamza 2+ goals
15%
Kamza 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
76%
Kamza (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Kamza away — creates 0.22, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.03 + Kamza defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kamza attack 0.22 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
56%
level
26%
Kamza scores more
17%

Kastrioti Krujë at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Kastrioti Krujë 3–0 Kamza

Kastrioti Krujë beat Kamza 3-0 in Superliga on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stadiumi Kastrioti in Krujë.