Kamza 0–1 Kastrioti Krujë: Result & Stats

Kamza

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kastrioti Krujë

2/17/2019

Superliga · Round 22Stadiumi Kamza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kamza33%

×Draw29%

Kastrioti Krujë38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KamzaExpected goals in this matchKastrioti Krujë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.16

Kamza

1.06

Kastrioti Krujë

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 73 away

0.50

creates per match

0.60

1.72

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Kamza

0.50

Kastrioti Krujë

0.60

allows per match

Kamza

1.72

Kastrioti Krujë

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamza+0.00on par

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamza ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kamza or draw

62%

Kamza or Kastrioti Krujë

71%

Draw or Kastrioti Krujë

67%

Winning margin

Kamza wins by 2+

13%

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kamza 1+ goals

65%

Kamza 2+ goals

29%

Kamza 3+ goals

9%

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals

69%

Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals

32%

Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kamza (draw refunded)

46%

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamza at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamza attack 0.50 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.60 + Kamza defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kamza scores more

33%

level

29%

Kastrioti Krujë scores more

38%

Kastrioti Krujë at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff