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Kastrioti Krujë vs Flamurtari — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
10/26/20241st Division1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë39%
×Draw27%
Flamurtari34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.28
Flamurtari
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
Flamurtari
1.27

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
Flamurtari
1.04

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
66%
Kastrioti Krujë or Flamurtari
73%
Draw or Flamurtari
61%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
17%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
72%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
37%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
14%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
70%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
33%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
53%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + Flamurtari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.28

Flamurtari attack 1.27 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
39%
level
27%
Flamurtari scores more
34%

Kastrioti Krujë at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kastrioti Krujë vs Flamurtari

Flamurtari beat Kastrioti Krujë 1-0 in 1st Division on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Redi Maloku in Fushë-Krujë.