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Flamurtari vs Kastrioti Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
3/9/20251st Division1st Division · Round 27Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Flamurtari56%
×Draw25%
Kastrioti Krujë19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.61
Kastrioti Krujë
0.82

Flamurtari creates 96% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.57
Kastrioti Krujë
0.95

allows per match

Flamurtari
0.70
Kastrioti Krujë
1.66

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
81%
Flamurtari or Kastrioti Krujë
75%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
44%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
30%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
80%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
48%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
22%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
56%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
20%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
75%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.57 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + Flamurtari defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Flamurtari scores more
56%
level
25%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
19%

Flamurtari at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Flamurtari 2–1 Kastrioti Krujë

Flamurtari beat Kastrioti Krujë 2-1 in 1st Division on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Flamurtari in Vlorë.