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Kastrioti Krujë vs Bylis — Superliga 2018

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bylis
Bylis
4/19/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 28Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë43%
×Draw28%
Bylis29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.31
Bylis
1.03

Kastrioti Krujë creates 27% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.03
Bylis
0.91

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.16
Bylis
1.60

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Bylis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Bylis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
71%
Kastrioti Krujë or Bylis
72%
Draw or Bylis
57%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
20%
Bylis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
73%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
38%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
14%
Bylis 1+ goals
64%
Bylis 2+ goals
28%
Bylis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
59%
Bylis (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Bylis away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.03 + Bylis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bylis attack 0.91 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
43%
level
28%
Bylis scores more
29%

Kastrioti Krujë at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kastrioti Krujë vs Bylis

Bylis beat Kastrioti Krujë 2-0 in Superliga on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.