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Bylis vs Kastrioti Krujë — Superliga 2018

Bylis
Bylis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
1/29/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Stadiumi Adush Muça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bylis49%
×Draw28%
Kastrioti Krujë22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bylis
1.33
Kastrioti Krujë
0.79

Bylis creates 68% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 74 away

creates per match

Bylis
1.04
Kastrioti Krujë
0.62

allows per match

Bylis
0.97
Kastrioti Krujë
1.62

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bylis or draw
78%
Bylis or Kastrioti Krujë
72%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
51%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+
23%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals
74%
Bylis 2+ goals
38%
Bylis 3+ goals
15%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
55%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
19%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)
69%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.97 · 90 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 1.04 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.62 + Bylis defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bylis scores more
49%
level
28%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
22%

Bylis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bylis vs Kastrioti Krujë

Bylis beat Kastrioti Krujë 1-0 in Superliga on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muça in Ballsh.