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Kastrioti Krujë vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
12/8/20241st Division1st Division · Round 15Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë45%
×Draw26%
Besa Kavajë29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.49
Besa Kavajë
1.15

Kastrioti Krujë creates 30% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
71%
Kastrioti Krujë or Besa Kavajë
74%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
55%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
22%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
77%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
44%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
19%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
68%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
32%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
61%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
45%
level
26%
Besa Kavajë scores more
29%

Kastrioti Krujë at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kastrioti Krujë vs Besa Kavajë

Besa Kavajë beat Kastrioti Krujë 1-0 in 1st Division on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Redi Maloku in Fushë-Krujë.