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Besa Kavajë vs Kastrioti Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
8/23/20251st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Besa Kavajë51%
×Draw25%
Kastrioti Krujë24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Kavajë
1.56
Kastrioti Krujë
0.98

Besa Kavajë creates 59% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 62 away

creates per match

Besa Kavajë
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
0.95

allows per match

Besa Kavajë
1.01
Kastrioti Krujë
1.66

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw
76%
Besa Kavajë or Kastrioti Krujë
75%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
49%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
26%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
79%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
46%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
21%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
62%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
26%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
68%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more
51%
level
25%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
24%

Besa Kavajë at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Kavajë vs Kastrioti Krujë

Besa Kavajë and Kastrioti Krujë drew 1-1 in 1st Division on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu in Lushnjë.