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Kastrioti Krujë vs AF Elbasani — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
9/3/20231st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë33%
×Draw25%
AF Elbasani42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.29
AF Elbasani
1.49

AF Elbasani creates 16% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
AF Elbasani
1.88

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
AF Elbasani
1.06

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

AF Elbasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
58%
Kastrioti Krujë or AF Elbasani
75%
Draw or AF Elbasani
67%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
14%
AF Elbasani wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
72%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
37%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
14%
AF Elbasani 1+ goals
77%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
44%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
44%
AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + AF Elbasani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

AF Elbasani attack 1.88 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
33%
level
25%
AF Elbasani scores more
42%

AF Elbasani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Kastrioti Krujë 1–1 AF Elbasani

Kastrioti Krujë and AF Elbasani drew 1-1 in 1st Division on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Redi Maloku in Fushë-Krujë.