Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AF Elbasani vs Kastrioti Krujë — 1st Division 2019

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
11/22/20231st Division1st Division · Round 12Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani66%
×Draw19%
Kastrioti Krujë15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AF Elbasani
2.19
Kastrioti Krujë
0.92

AF Elbasani creates 138% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

AF Elbasani
2.71
Kastrioti Krujë
0.95

allows per match

AF Elbasani
0.88
Kastrioti Krujë
1.66

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw
85%
AF Elbasani or Kastrioti Krujë
81%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
34%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+
42%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals
89%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
64%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
37%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
60%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
23%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
82%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.19

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

AF Elbasani scores more
66%
level
19%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
15%

AF Elbasani at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: AF Elbasani 3–1 Kastrioti Krujë

AF Elbasani beat Kastrioti Krujë 3-1 in 1st Division on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.