Kaspiy 0–0 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Kaspiy

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

3/11/2022

Premier League · Round 2Stadion Jas kanat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kaspiy36%

×Draw27%

FK Tobol Kostanay38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaspiyExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Kaspiy

1.27

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 92 away

1.27

creates per match

1.32

1.31

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Kaspiy

1.27

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.32

allows per match

Kaspiy

1.31

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw

62%

Kaspiy or FK Tobol Kostanay

73%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

64%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+

16%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals

72%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

36%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

14%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

73%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

38%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

49%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 1.27 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.32 + Kaspiy defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaspiy scores more

36%

level

27%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

38%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

C. Tigroudja

39'

Y. Nurgaliyev

39'

Z. Tosic

58'

Ruan← A. Adil

65'

R. Ardazishvili

69'

Ruan

73'

A. Zhaksylykov← Z. Tošić

83'

A. Nyusup← Y. Nurgaliyev

84'

B. Kairov

90+7'

D. Jovancic

90+4'

A. Armenov← P. Kireenko

Kaspiy

FK

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Kostov

58'▲Ruan←▼A. Adil

83'▲A. Nyusup←▼Y. Nurgaliyev

90+4'▲A. Armenov←▼P. Kireenko

Kaspiy substitutes

RuanNyusupArmenovBekmyrzaKabylanKonlimkosKadyrbaevNursultanovShugaevJankovZhanysbaevDmitrenko

Manager: A. Moskalenko

73'▲A. Zhaksylykov←▼Z. Tošić

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

ZhaksylykovAmanovićMiroshnichenkoNepogodovSemchenkovBusurmanovZharynbetovKulpeisovZhumashev