FK Tobol Kostanay 2–1 Kaspiy: Result & Stats

FK Tobol Kostanay

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kaspiy

Z. Zhumashev 16', 6'

I. Umaev 39'

4/26/2026

Premier League · Round 7Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay60%

×Draw23%

Kaspiy17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Tobol KostanayExpected goals in this matchKaspiy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.83

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.78

Kaspiy

0.83

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 114% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.83

Kaspiy

0.67

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.00

Kaspiy

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Kaspiy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

83%

FK Tobol Kostanay or Kaspiy

77%

Draw or Kaspiy

40%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

34%

Kaspiy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

83%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

53%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

26%

Kaspiy 1+ goals

56%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

20%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

78%

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Kaspiy away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.83 + Kaspiy defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.78

Kaspiy attack 0.67 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

60%

level

23%

Kaspiy scores more

17%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Z. Zhumashev

16'

Z. Zhumashev↳ A. Tagybergen

39'

I. Umaev↳ M. Taykenov

47'

B. Morgado

62'

L. Guerra

68'

M. Vukcevic← N. Zhagorov

73'

Z. Zhazmagambetov← D. Esimbekov

87'

A. Serikbay← M. Serikbay

90+7'

90+9'

90+9'

90'

90'

A. Zuev← Z. Zhumashev

90'

M. Kalmyrza←

90+1'

A. Armenov← I. Umaev

FK

Kaspiy

24

21

23

30

19

A

Taykenov

13

▼

Serikbay

5

Strumia

27

▼

Esimbekov

11

Ndombasi

9

Zulfikaro

10

⚽

▼

Umaev

1

Busurmano

21

▼

4

5

3

8

A

Tagyberge

13

Cisse

7

⚽2

▼

Zhumashev

19

▼

Zhumat

30

Guerra

18

Milovanov

Manager: Miroslav Romashchenko

68'▲M. Vukcevic←▼N. Zhagorov

90'▲A. Talal←▼D. Zhumat

90'▲A. Zuev←▼Z. Zhumashev

90'▲M. Kalmyrza←▼—

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

6Myakish11Marat14Talal15Vukcevic17Zuev22Marochkin26Glushchenkov29Usenov35Melikhov44Ustimenko88Kalmyrza99Zinadin

Manager: Piraly Aliev

73'▲Z. Zhazmagambetov←▼D. Esimbekov

87'▲A. Serikbay←▼M. Serikbay

90+1'▲A. Armenov←▼I. Umaev

Kaspiy substitutes

1Ayazbaev15Serikbay33Dias55Elemes67Berdibek77Zhazmagambetov99Franca8Armenov4Kadyrbaev

Match Recap: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaspiy

FK Tobol Kostanay beat Kaspiy 2-1 in Premier League on April 26, 2026.

Goals: Z. Zhumashev (6', 16'), I. Umaev (39').

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Kostanay.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaspiy — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaspiy